Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 14.033743 16.023743 18.157457 20.610966 23.349658 26.307922 29.740378
2025-09-14 11.329025 14.093608 17.278343 21.199810 25.878576 31.261131 37.899794
2025-09-21 9.596790 12.629326 16.289416 20.997793 26.855862 33.863434 42.835022
2025-09-28 7.937271 11.012506 14.889105 20.081297 26.792718 35.108487 46.115307
2025-10-05 7.255532 10.515213 14.773328 20.666089 28.519977 38.527135 52.124735
2025-10-12 6.633683 10.011670 14.572016 21.074913 29.986398 41.630560 57.828043
2025-10-19 5.932032 9.311396 14.020654 20.930858 30.653419 43.661798 62.158090
2025-10-26 5.315286 8.663008 13.471222 20.719926 31.173796 45.472291 66.219512
2025-11-02 4.851048 8.189792 13.121962 20.745712 31.992621 47.688166 70.885383
2025-11-09 4.484261 7.826823 12.897055 20.919290 33.005668 50.188341 76.015799
2025-11-16 4.100986 7.398791 12.533885 20.847327 33.632487 52.138862 80.413675
2025-11-23 3.735639 6.963685 12.121244 20.660248 34.056809 53.788163 84.410929
2025-11-30 3.461372 6.662242 11.906234 20.778625 34.967811 56.217062 89.691837
2025-12-07 3.306059 6.551751 11.991604 21.377210 36.647753 59.858562 96.912390
2025-12-14 3.017957 6.176567 11.604509 21.171770 37.031553 61.528008 101.197399
2025-12-21 2.637973 5.595651 10.820794 20.249276 36.201268 61.273461 102.507950
2025-12-28 2.538429 5.531047 10.928184 20.838099 37.859086 64.956265 110.028257
2026-01-04 2.419119 5.416553 10.936227 21.249979 39.233389 68.230202 117.006733
2026-01-11 2.230371 5.146355 10.640512 21.104848 39.652318 69.974858 121.603980
2026-01-18 2.049775 4.874694 10.320654 20.892393 39.936548 71.497967 125.880328
2026-01-25 1.914775 4.684568 10.139800 20.918362 40.628405 73.705561 131.326039
2026-02-01 1.808070 4.544415 10.044170 21.093204 41.584042 76.376885 137.606510
2026-02-08 1.681994 4.349358 9.825730 21.020717 42.087891 78.295953 142.689416